Part 2, what I should have sold too!!

Tomorrow by the rules I should be selling Deck if she goes sideways or down. Unless it gets to painful, I will hold until the 28th and see if I can milk a pop.

Same goes here, I should sell it tomorrow unless it recaptures the CBL line. I do not believe that will happen but this is my current favorite stock and I have room. I really would like to see a pivot low created above the last and I will buy more. I think this stock continues to rise the rest of 2013.

Smith and Wesson and I have a long history together and I have rarely been in the green. I have read over and over again that guns are flying off the shelf and think the earning report is going to be a blowout to the upside. I will hold this through earnings and I will not be adding anymore to this position. I have made the decision that no matter what, I sell this bad boy on earnings day rain or shine no matter the outcome. I guess you could say this is my gamble.

I also own GRW and FBHS and the CBL’s did not fire today even though they were so close we were talking pennies. I love the massive pullbacks that take all my profits away that I patiently waited weeks to gain. The most important thing to note is this, it is never a profit until you sell it, so it was never a profit.

Sold two!

I likely panicked a little bit here but I didn’t want to give all my profit back, so I took it. There is no crime is taking a profit. Ever! So I moved this to my watch list and will re-entry of a pivot and not use the CBL. I like this stock long term. Once my CBl line broke today I took it.

Say excuse as with CI, I wanted the profit in my bank and I took it. I will likely give GS another try off a pivot low without a CBL system along as the downward direction of price doesn’t go to deep.

Profit to me = a whopping $156, a profit is a profit!!!

Today is going to cause some selling for me tomorrow.

I’ve got 3 stocks in trouble. One I will make money on, One I will take a loss, and the other I refuse to sell until earning are reported. All 3 stocks fell far enough today to punctured through and close below the CBL lines. Their 50 day moving averages are safe, but I think with what I see in the overall market, if these stocks do not recover tomorrow, I will sell 2 other them. Below are the charts for left to right, CI, FBHS, and SWHC.

Position update as of 2/15/13

I’m going to try and keep up with updating this blog at least weekly on my positions. I will also try to put some buys and shorts on here as time permits. Most that follow me know that I do a retirement blog, so finding the extra time is sometimes hard, so let’s get this going. Just a little note, DECK and SWHC are the only 2 stocks I have left to report earnings this quarter.

SWHC – Smith and Wesson finally turned into a green position for me and even though it is unrealized gain, it has been hard to hold this position because it is a gun manufacture. There is a lot of negative press right now but honestly, I‘ve lived here in the United States and I do not believe there is a chance in hell that control will ever take place. It’s just the same news over and over again and I do not know if big money will ever lose the battle in DC. Earning report for SWHC March 5th and I expect this stock to rocket on that report. Currently up 2% and everything on the chart currently looks awesome.

GWR – Genesee & Wyoming Rail reported earnings this week to no real big surprises but it was enough to roll the stock forward. I think that this is going to a very nice long term hold. Still my largest winner, unrealized, at 24%.

KORS – Michael Kors came in this week with some ass kicking earnings and forward looking reports. Last consensus that I say called for this stock to reach $67 soon and after this weeks pop to $63, we are almost there. KORS is my second best holding now at 14%. Not sure if I would buy this tomorrow if I were shopping KORS, but if I were in, I would hold it. A little consolidation here would be healthy.

CI – Cigna Corp had a pretty flat week and is no in the 3rd bull flag in many weeks. Friday price actually closed just a little bit below the flag, so Monday is going to interesting. This is another stock where a little pullback and or consolidation might be very healthy for the stock.

GS – Goldman Sacks just seems to on an unstoppable rise. Ex-Dividend date is 2/26/13 and I would expect price to rise through that date but after that who knows. I will at least hold through that point and get that free money. I believe it is about .50 cents a share. Buy GS right here might be risky.

FBHS – Fortune Brands Home hit an all time high Wednesday and then Thursday and Friday gave some back. Since this stock is in the Home sector, I think it has a lot of room to run. I think I would consider buying more once this little pullback is done.

DECK – Is my newest stock and I have owned this stock several times. To me, this was firing all kinds of long term buys by crossing over the 50 day and 200 day moving averages. I had reservation about buying this stock before the 2/28/12 earnings report, but I just loved the chart. Since I bought the stock at $44.92 it has laddered down everyday. I’m still safe because price is above short term uptrend and my CBL, but it is looking a little grim. Hopefully this will reverse next week or I will pull the trigger and bailout. Discipline.

As of 2/13/13 portfolio

Looking good at this moment in time.

I will attempt to do a complete portfolio update Thursday or Friday. 

Apple Update

So far Apple has failed to make any progress on a breakout and to give a buy signal. Still a watch and if you own it, be careful here. 

Closed position AN

Update: Since I sold this stock, price has continued to fall. I now have it in my watch list with a new green CBL line as my buy line. 

 

I had a very short ride but good good with Auto Nation and I do believe they are still a watch. Unfortunately today price hit my sell CBL line and I'm afraid that because price recently hit an all time high, that the fight to get through it is momentarily lost. So, like I just said, I will move this stock to my watch list and wait for another oppourtunity to ride this money making stock up.

After commission, I made 7.61%. 

Update on DECK

Since buying Deck, she has since pullback a bit but is still safe. Uptrend, CBL, and 50 day are all safe.

 

I decided to take a position in DECK. I had to use a little margin because I was tapped out of cash, but I will replenish the amount missing to cover margin by next Friday. To many stocks to buy and so little cash. :(

Stoploss today is $43.81

I'm also liking Apple here

There are a few more things that I would to see this chart, AAPL, do before I commit any funds. Recently price closed above my CBL, (green line below), and then followed through the next day. Now in order for me to commit to buying Apple, I will also need to see price closed above and follow through the Red downtrend line and close above the 50 day moving average. I would take thoughs 3 signals together and run with it. Stack the odds in my favor and then set a paper stoploss via the CBL or Count back line. 

KORS, finally

I have been holding Micheal Kors, KORS since October 16, 2012 and I got in the stock via technically with charts. I did my reading and research about how KORS was growing and taking business from Coach, COH, and since it stayed in a trading channel, I decided to hold the stock. This morning was the moment of truth when KORS was due to report earnings before the markets opened. 

KORS - not only did they beat their expected earnings, they also increased guidance for the future. Looking at the pre-market chart I should get a 10-11% pop and I'm hoping this holds. 

Deck is my favorite buy.

Deck is looking like a perfect long term setup. Price just closed above the 200 day moving average 2 days ago and then confirmed today. That means that price is above the rising 50 day moving average and we have at least 3 pivot lows higher than the last. Deck is an out right buy with a CBL stop loss at $40.44.

EXK oops!

UPDATE 2/17/13: If you scroll down to the original blog below and click the link where 2 trades were making a little fun of me because I use charts to help enter and exit a stock position, you will see this time I was right. Like I said, if your going to use fundamentals to buy and sell stocks, why can't use charts to supplement all your hard work. I think if you look at the updated chart below it might have saved these 2 guys about 10%.

They made the claim that the stock was signalling an extreme overbought and the fundamentals where so good that price had to reverse. They made this claim will it was in the last BEAR Flag. Since that time the stock has fallen an additional .71 cents or 10.2%. Second point, a Bear Flag is not something I would looking to go long on, put short. So, listen to yourself in the end, not your buddy.

I had a couple of guys making a little bit of fun of me because I made the suggestion that maybe even though they never used charts to buy a stock that it is all about value, that there is no value in charts. Well to me the chart can supplement your homework in value and that was my only point to them. I have learned this about the stock market; No matter how great the fundementals and value of a stock, if the stock falls out of favor for any reason, the stock market will punish you.

You can find the article and comments here: Click here.

Take a look below and even though I agreed that there was value, I believed you should wait for support to be proven and price to reverse and break through the Buy CBL line that is green. Well today my point was proven once again, even and old fart has a little wisdom from life from time to time.

Something I haven't seen in a long time.

Just really quick post to show my current holdings and how they are doing. I'm not use to this, so I figured I better document it before it chages. 

Feels kind of wierd to have a handful of winners. 

Bank of America

Update: Still looking good even though  she is doing a little consolidatiing here. Intermediate uptrend line is still working as is the Primary. Solid red line shows the Stop loss CBL at $11.56. Hoping nest week she will stretch her legs a runs a bit. 

 

 

Looking at the weekly chart the original entry signal was fired around 9/3/2012. Since that point we have another higher pivot low so we can draw a primary uptrend to base all of our new buys using the daily chart. As long as the primary uptrend stays intact, we will be able to find entry’s using Bull Flags and CBL’s.

Okie Dokie, on January 7th was the beginning of a Bull Flag and to the patient buyer, a new entry point. Not every Bull Flag works, but at least it is a tool to help put the odds in your favor. During the Bull Flag, the 50 day moving continued to rise and price never crossed over. That’s another bonus. January 25th we had the breakout we were looking for. Here is the problem, the next day price did not follow to the upside, so I would not have taken the bait. The next 4 days price continued to fall and appeared to me that this was going to be a head fake. I started to draw a secondary signal called the CBL, Count Back Line. Eventually priced reversed again and broke out the top of the CBL on 2/1/13. So the next day was the day of purchase, but once again, price did not follow through, so it was another wait and see. On 2/5/13, price once again closed above the CBL so the next day and entry could be made as long as price was not falling. Finally on 2/6/13, you could have safely entered and bought at any price between $11.73 and $11.97.

Ok, now that you are in we need to put a paper mental stop loss on BAC if price does not follow through. So as of the close Friday, 2/9/13 your Stop loss should be $11.37. I do not use real live Stop losses because of high frequency computer trading. These computers can see your stop loss market orders and will at times flash prices in either direction to fire those orders. I personally think this should be outlawed. Mental stop loss is hard but if done correctly every time, it will save your butt. If your stock price closes below your paper stop loss, then the next day you are required to sell. The only time this is hard is when price is rising the next morning and to each person I have to say, you’re on your own. We all know the rules, so bend them at your own risk.

Currently BAC is looking good because we a new short term uptrend that we can draw and it help anticipate where price is heading. 50’s look good and the primary uptrend is also good. So as long as we do not have any severe pullback days in the overall market, BAC should be able to rise from here. The Financial sector is also in good shape and rising and that should help. BAC is a hold and still a buy at these levels.

I hate to post this, it might Jinx me!!

Below are the first set of numbers for 2013. If you look down the left side for a red box, those stocks were bought in 2012, so I ‘m still rolling some of those losses over. Right now in 2013, I’m 3 out of 4 to the good. This is new for me and maybe a change in luck. I work hard to stay disciplined and fight my urges to follow news and rumors, but I find it even harder with stocks. The first month, January I posted a $481 loss. Not exactly the way I envisioned it, but it was pretty normal for me. That sounds very negative and I want that to stop. Do you see the little line that says, “This is new for me?” That is were I would be if I liquidated all my positions now and that is after commission. So for the firt time in a very long time, I can say for the moment I’m in the Green, even if it’s just on paper.

SWHC – Smith and Wesson is my largest position and at first glance it looks awful, but with commission as part of my equation, I’m just $61 down. Price just crossed back over the 50 day moving average today so I’m hoping that I can ride this stock into the sunset with big profits. I expect the earnings report in March to be huge. On the downside of this picture is all the gun control talk. I just do think our Government will ever do anything because of lobbyist.

GWR – Genesee & Wyoming Rail is my big winner for now. I’m up 17% and looking at a current chart, bull flagging hopefully to breakout to the upside. GWR will report earnings 2/12/13 after the markets close and I plan to hold through earnings.

KORS – Like Smith & Wesson this has been a very hard stock to hold and I likely should have sold it for a loss awhile back. I’ve owned it since mid-October and I have nothing to show for this period of time. I’m down $3. KORS is in a very wide price channel between $46.50 to $58.00. Right now price is leaning to the upper portion of the channel. Earnings come out 2/12/13 before the market opens. My plan right now is to hold through, but I could change my mind depending on what price does between now and then.

CI – Cigna Corp is one of my favorites and one of my newer picks. I believe I found it by sorting through Healthcare stocks at the time when that sector was rolling. CI reports tomorrow morning, so wish luck.

GS – My son was looking to buy BAC and I wanted a banking stock and I felt at the time of purchase, this was the safer move. GS reported earnings on 1/16/13 so I do not have to worry about wipe lash on that news. So far so good with GS.

FBHS – I have owned before and made money and this one was been bought by a trader that I know. I liked the chart and decided to get back in again. So far it has moved a little against me but it is early in the game for this stock. Earning already reported 1/31/13, so I feel safe for now.

You will also notice down the left hand column a little area named IBC. I joined a trader page that has a paying membership to increase my knowledge base. At the time purchase, I had gotten a few stock plays from them that made me a little cash, so I gave it back to them. $359 a year. Right now in time with the carry over from 2012, the trades I’ve played with their picks since and some of my strategies, I’m down $451.00 Not to crazy about the main section of the membership that I paid for because it is not for rookies or pickers, as they call us. I want to join the area with ChessNwine, but an additional $359 is required and until I make the profit from trades, I will not surrender new capitol to their page.