I hate to post this, it might Jinx me!!

Below are the first set of numbers for 2013. If you look down the left side for a red box, those stocks were bought in 2012, so I ‘m still rolling some of those losses over. Right now in 2013, I’m 3 out of 4 to the good. This is new for me and maybe a change in luck. I work hard to stay disciplined and fight my urges to follow news and rumors, but I find it even harder with stocks. The first month, January I posted a $481 loss. Not exactly the way I envisioned it, but it was pretty normal for me. That sounds very negative and I want that to stop. Do you see the little line that says, “This is new for me?” That is were I would be if I liquidated all my positions now and that is after commission. So for the firt time in a very long time, I can say for the moment I’m in the Green, even if it’s just on paper.

SWHC – Smith and Wesson is my largest position and at first glance it looks awful, but with commission as part of my equation, I’m just $61 down. Price just crossed back over the 50 day moving average today so I’m hoping that I can ride this stock into the sunset with big profits. I expect the earnings report in March to be huge. On the downside of this picture is all the gun control talk. I just do think our Government will ever do anything because of lobbyist.

GWR – Genesee & Wyoming Rail is my big winner for now. I’m up 17% and looking at a current chart, bull flagging hopefully to breakout to the upside. GWR will report earnings 2/12/13 after the markets close and I plan to hold through earnings.

KORS – Like Smith & Wesson this has been a very hard stock to hold and I likely should have sold it for a loss awhile back. I’ve owned it since mid-October and I have nothing to show for this period of time. I’m down $3. KORS is in a very wide price channel between $46.50 to $58.00. Right now price is leaning to the upper portion of the channel. Earnings come out 2/12/13 before the market opens. My plan right now is to hold through, but I could change my mind depending on what price does between now and then.

CI – Cigna Corp is one of my favorites and one of my newer picks. I believe I found it by sorting through Healthcare stocks at the time when that sector was rolling. CI reports tomorrow morning, so wish luck.

GS – My son was looking to buy BAC and I wanted a banking stock and I felt at the time of purchase, this was the safer move. GS reported earnings on 1/16/13 so I do not have to worry about wipe lash on that news. So far so good with GS.

FBHS – I have owned before and made money and this one was been bought by a trader that I know. I liked the chart and decided to get back in again. So far it has moved a little against me but it is early in the game for this stock. Earning already reported 1/31/13, so I feel safe for now.

You will also notice down the left hand column a little area named IBC. I joined a trader page that has a paying membership to increase my knowledge base. At the time purchase, I had gotten a few stock plays from them that made me a little cash, so I gave it back to them. $359 a year. Right now in time with the carry over from 2012, the trades I’ve played with their picks since and some of my strategies, I’m down $451.00 Not to crazy about the main section of the membership that I paid for because it is not for rookies or pickers, as they call us. I want to join the area with ChessNwine, but an additional $359 is required and until I make the profit from trades, I will not surrender new capitol to their page.

Buying a Stock before earning is a gamble, even with Apple!!!

This afternoon after the market closed, Apple reported earnings. I have been taught that in most cases that it is never a good idea to buy a stock 1 or 2 weeks before earnings. Sometimes you win and sometimes you lose but it’s never worth the gamble. You can always get in after and ride the safe wave up or down, but stay clear of the drama. I will say, that it feels really good when you buy a stock right before and it just zooms to the sky, but how do you know up or down? You don’t!!!

Best to use methods like trend lines and CBL lines to get in and out and that will normally protect you. Tomorrow morning when Apple opens, if the overnight numbers hold, Apple is going to be greeted to a 50 or more point drop of at least 10%. I do not even know what the news or numbers were that were reported, but it doesn’t really matter. That is going to hurt a lot of feelings.

 

After Hours Chart Below

Apple update

Last week I wrote about Apple Stock and why you should wait for a reason to buy a stock. Have a plan of attack and know that you have done your best to make a good entry and plan for an exit if it goes against you. The last CBL line that we had drawn almost had follow through but it broke down and failed before we should have committed any money. So here we are again, bad news from Apple that they are scaling back production of the Iphone-5 because of demand. If I understand what I heard correctly, cutting production by 50%. News really doesn’t matter as far we are concerned, price action is what we want. As price falls and the down trend line continue to fall, we move our CBL buy line down with it. We wait for price to close above the CBL and then we buy the next day. The next item to be concerned with here is that solid red support line at $501-$502 area. You could bottom fish here and hope that it holds, but I do not bottom fish using support. I need to see some price action with rules. I need that CBL to be broken and held.  I would like to see price also close to the upside on the upside of the downtrend line. Finally, I would like to see price close above the 50 day moving average, but not required for me. So in order in importance, CBL, Downtrend line, 50 day ma.

I would bottom fish with just a broken CBL.

2012 ending trade numbers

Trading stocks long and short have been my greatest challenge. I’m still trying to find my spot and what I’m good at when it comes to individual stocks. When it comes to trading an index or ETF, I think I got a pretty good handle on that as you can  monitor on my TSP blog. The reason is simple and that is because indexes and ETF’s are made up of multiple stocks, so they rise and fall more slowly. An individual can move so fast that trend traders, like myself can be abused in choppy markets. So once again I will take 2012 as a lesson and see if in 2013 I can turn a corner and make a profit.

I never claimed to be good at stock trading and this is my goal to become a consistent profit maker even if it’s 1% or greater.

Current stocks: PDLI, GWR, KORS, EXK, VHC, SWHC. Currently 1 stock up, 5 down.

As of October 31, 2012

One thing I hate is talking to people that trade stocks and they never, ever will show you the bottom line. The P/L or the Profit and Loss statement. I do not post here enough but here it is as of October 2012. I’m down $1365.94 for the year which irritates me a bit but I have to keep reminding myself that playing individual stocks is hard. If it was as easy as some people make in sound, then why won’t they show you the P/L or quit their day job? Well it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure that out.

I will keep plugging away until I find my groove and when I do, believe me, you will hear and read about it. I’m close, discipline, discipline, discipline.

Sometimes things just workout

Do you see that little green note on the stock chart above? That's a note I made on the chart Friday, October26th that price fell below my CBL by the close of the day and it needed to be sold. Monday and Tuesday the makets were closed because of Hurricane Sandy. Come the opening today and PVH was up 20% on news. Do I care what news? Nope, sold that puppy for a 12.61% profit after commissions. What a turn around. I was down about 5-6% and now I was dancing in the streets. 

Just goes to show, sometimes even I get lucky in the stock market. I think I've earned it after all the hard work I do trying to figure this stuff out.

Ok party is over, back to the markets. :)

Are you better off?

Ok, I hate politics but I keep hearing this question over and over again and instead of listening to all the crap that each politician puts on TV I decided to just check the charts of the stock market. What the charts below show is the first 4 years of President Bush and then the first 4 years of President Obama. All I can say is a picture is worth a thousand words. I realize that not everyone plays the stock market but in a round about way the stock affects everyone.